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热潮过后,SPAC回报“疲软”

热潮过后,SPAC回报“疲软”

Anne Sraders 2021年10月01日
在市场上SPAC过剩的情况下,监管机构需要更加谨慎。

2021年年初,SPAC(特殊目的收购公司)的狂热到达顶峰。

FactSet的数据显示,今年第一季度,SPAC占所有IPO(首次公开募股)的68.5%。与此同时,2021年前三个月的SPAC发行量就超过了2020年的总量,而2020年数据已经突破历史纪录。

在市场上SPAC过剩的情况下,监管机构需要更加谨慎,美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)关于会计实务的新指导方针导致SPAC发行量大幅下降。不过,尽管SPAC的飙升已经明显降温,但“尽管监管方面的不确定性持续存在,SPAC的发行最近仍然在加速,”高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的策略师大卫·戈斯坦在9月15日的一份报告中写道。

但在这些活动的背后,隐藏着一个更令人沮丧的信息:SPAC热潮下的产品基本上都没有给投资者带来太大的回报。

高盛的策略师指出,第三季度到目前为止,SPAC的成绩还不算差到家:“平均每周有6家SPAC完成IPO,融资总额12亿美元。”这一数字高于第二季度的平均每周不到4家SPAC,但仍然低于第一季度狂热时期每周平均21家SPAC融资60亿美元的水平。(见下面高盛的图表。)

“实际利率偏低似乎为SPAC的发行提供了新动力。”高盛团队称。但监管和法律方面的担忧并未消失,“仍然给发行前景蒙上阴影。”

复兴资本(Renaissance Capital)的IPO高级策略师马修·肯尼迪向《财富》杂志表示,“值得注意的是,尽管我们的IPO规模较第一季度大幅下滑,但与前几年相比,仍然在以有史以来的最快速度增长。”

但除了数字之外,对投资者来说,最引人关注的是SPAC的市场回报令人失望。

即便是在2021年年初的繁荣期,也有报告显示SPAC的回报低于平均水平,尤其是合并后(即SPAC收购了一家公司后)的回报。今年4月,精品投资银行PJ Solomon的首席执行官马克·库珀向《财富》杂志表示,作为投资者,“最需要关注的”是“这些公司退出SPAC后的表现”。

果然,根据高盛的分析,截至9月,“SPAC的回报一直很低,尤其是在交易完成之后。”

用“疲软”来形容可能还不太够。高盛写道:“2月见顶以来,一个涵盖不同SPAC整个生命周期各个阶段的ETF(基金代码:SPAK)的回报率为-35%,而标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的回报率为+14%。”同时,市场上其他“高增长和利率敏感型股票”,比如长期股和非盈利性科技股,“表现好一些,但也出现了下跌。”

高盛的策略师指出,在自2020年年初以来完成交易的172家SPAC中,“从IPO到宣布交易的过程中,它们的中位数表现优于罗素3000指数(Russell 3000)。”但“在交易完成后的6个月里,它们的中位数表现比罗素3000指数低了42个百分点。”

从另一个角度来看,按照复兴资本的肯尼迪的说法,根据他的数据,今年迄今为止,SPAC的70%的IPO交易价格低于10美元的报价(这是截至9月15日的数据,包括已经宣布的和一些已经完成合并的)。复兴资本的数据显示,在2021年完成合并的SPAC中,58%的交易价格低于最初的报价。

复兴资本在9月发布的一份报告称,“由于SPAC回报普遍下降,美国证券交易委员会监管收紧,与2021年年初相比,正在筹备中的SPAC将更难筹集IPO资金。”

当然,并不是说所有的SPAC都是糟糕的投资。肯尼迪指出:“就个案来说……我们看到有一些能力非常出众、经验丰富的SPAC赞助商找到了好公司。”

但投资者似乎比以往任何时候都更需要精挑细选。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

2021年年初,SPAC(特殊目的收购公司)的狂热到达顶峰。

FactSet的数据显示,今年第一季度,SPAC占所有IPO(首次公开募股)的68.5%。与此同时,2021年前三个月的SPAC发行量就超过了2020年的总量,而2020年数据已经突破历史纪录。

在市场上SPAC过剩的情况下,监管机构需要更加谨慎,美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)关于会计实务的新指导方针导致SPAC发行量大幅下降。不过,尽管SPAC的飙升已经明显降温,但“尽管监管方面的不确定性持续存在,SPAC的发行最近仍然在加速,”高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的策略师大卫·戈斯坦在9月15日的一份报告中写道。

但在这些活动的背后,隐藏着一个更令人沮丧的信息:SPAC热潮下的产品基本上都没有给投资者带来太大的回报。

高盛的策略师指出,第三季度到目前为止,SPAC的成绩还不算差到家:“平均每周有6家SPAC完成IPO,融资总额12亿美元。”这一数字高于第二季度的平均每周不到4家SPAC,但仍然低于第一季度狂热时期每周平均21家SPAC融资60亿美元的水平。(见下面高盛的图表。)

“实际利率偏低似乎为SPAC的发行提供了新动力。”高盛团队称。但监管和法律方面的担忧并未消失,“仍然给发行前景蒙上阴影。”

复兴资本(Renaissance Capital)的IPO高级策略师马修·肯尼迪向《财富》杂志表示,“值得注意的是,尽管我们的IPO规模较第一季度大幅下滑,但与前几年相比,仍然在以有史以来的最快速度增长。”

但除了数字之外,对投资者来说,最引人关注的是SPAC的市场回报令人失望。

即便是在2021年年初的繁荣期,也有报告显示SPAC的回报低于平均水平,尤其是合并后(即SPAC收购了一家公司后)的回报。今年4月,精品投资银行PJ Solomon的首席执行官马克·库珀向《财富》杂志表示,作为投资者,“最需要关注的”是“这些公司退出SPAC后的表现”。

果然,根据高盛的分析,截至9月,“SPAC的回报一直很低,尤其是在交易完成之后。”

用“疲软”来形容可能还不太够。高盛写道:“2月见顶以来,一个涵盖不同SPAC整个生命周期各个阶段的ETF(基金代码:SPAK)的回报率为-35%,而标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的回报率为+14%。”同时,市场上其他“高增长和利率敏感型股票”,比如长期股和非盈利性科技股,“表现好一些,但也出现了下跌。”

高盛的策略师指出,在自2020年年初以来完成交易的172家SPAC中,“从IPO到宣布交易的过程中,它们的中位数表现优于罗素3000指数(Russell 3000)。”但“在交易完成后的6个月里,它们的中位数表现比罗素3000指数低了42个百分点。”

从另一个角度来看,按照复兴资本的肯尼迪的说法,根据他的数据,今年迄今为止,SPAC的70%的IPO交易价格低于10美元的报价(这是截至9月15日的数据,包括已经宣布的和一些已经完成合并的)。复兴资本的数据显示,在2021年完成合并的SPAC中,58%的交易价格低于最初的报价。

复兴资本在9月发布的一份报告称,“由于SPAC回报普遍下降,美国证券交易委员会监管收紧,与2021年年初相比,正在筹备中的SPAC将更难筹集IPO资金。”

当然,并不是说所有的SPAC都是糟糕的投资。肯尼迪指出:“就个案来说……我们看到有一些能力非常出众、经验丰富的SPAC赞助商找到了好公司。”

但投资者似乎比以往任何时候都更需要精挑细选。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

Back in early 2021, the SPAC frenzy was at its nose-bleed height.

During the first quarter of this year, SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, made up 68.5% of all IPOs, per FactSet data. Meanwhile, SPAC issuance topped its record 2020 total in the first three months of 2021.

Amid the glut of SPACs in the market, regulators have grown more wary, and the Securities and Exchange Commission's new guidelines around accounting practices sent SPAC issuance into a nosedive. Still, although the SPAC surge has markedly cooled, "SPAC issuance has accelerated recently despite continued regulatory uncertainty," strategists at Goldman Sachs led by David Gostin wrote in a September 15 report.

But underneath that activity lies a more somber message: The products of the SPAC boom largely haven't yielded great returns for investors.

So far in the third quarter, SPACs aren't down for the count: "An average of 6 SPAC IPOs have raised $1.2 billion in total capital each week," the Goldman strategists point out. That's up from the fewer than four SPAC IPOs completed in the average week in the second quarter, though still below the average 21 SPACs raising $6 billion in capital each week during the frenzied first quarter. (See Goldman's chart below.)

"Lower real rates appear to have provided a renewed tailwind to SPAC issuance," the Goldman team notes—but those regulatory and legal worries aren't out of the picture, and "continue to cloud the issuance outlook."

Matthew Kennedy, senior IPO strategist at Renaissance Capital, tells Fortune that "it's important to note that even though we've come down significantly from the first quarter, we're still on a record pace from previous years."

But aside from the sheer number, the headline for investors is that SPAC returns in the market have been disappointing.

Even back in the booming days of early 2021, there were reports suggesting SPAC returns, notably returns post-merger (once the SPAC has acquired a company), have been subpar. The "most important thing to keep your eye on" as an investor is "the performance of these companies once they de-SPAC," Marc Cooper, the CEO of boutique investment bank PJ Solomon, told Fortune back in April.

Sure enough, according to Goldman's analysis as of September, "SPAC returns have been weak, especially following deal closure."

Weak may be understating it a little. "Since its February peak, an ETF of SPACs across stages of the lifecycle (ticker: SPAK) has returned -35%, vs. +14% for the S&P 500," they note. Meanwhile other "high growth and interest rate-sensitive pockets of the market," like long duration stocks and non-profitable tech stocks, "have fared better but also declined."

Of the 172 SPACs that have closed a deal since the start of 2020, "the median has outperformed the Russell 3000 from its IPO to deal announcement," the Goldman strategists note. But "in the six months after deal closure, the median SPAC underperformed the Russell 3000 by 42 [percentage points]."

Looking at it another way, Renaissance Capital's Kennedy notes that based on his data, 70% of SPAC IPOs so far this year are trading below their $10 offer price (that's through September 15, and includes those that have announced and a few that have completed mergers). And of the SPACs that have completed mergers in 2021, 58% trade below their original offer price, according to Renaissance data.

Moving forward, "the SPACs in the pipeline will have a harder time raising IPO capital compared to early 2021, due to a broad-based decline in SPAC returns and greater regulatory scrutiny from the SEC," per a September report from Renaissance Capital.

That's not to say all SPACs are bad investments, of course. Kennedy notes that, "on an individual basis...we've definitely seen very competent, experienced SPAC sponsors find the good companies."

But it seems investors may need to be choosier than ever.

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